Iowa Caucus Predictions

Sensible people aren’t making any predictions as to winners in the Iowa Caucuses tomorrow, saying it’s too close to call. I’m not afraid to go out on a limb, however, since I have no money on it. And as I was one of the few to predict John Kerry to win the 2004 edition, I need to show that was no fluke.

On the Republican side, I see Romney overtaking a fading Mike Huckabee. Huck has been screwing up lately and I think his time as a serious candidate is running out. Call it 31% for Romney, 29% for Huck and Fred Thompson coming in third with 14%. I know most polls pick McCain for third, and the Register likes him (a contrary indicator for Republicans if I’ve ever seen one) but I don’t see much Iowa presence for McCain and Thompson’s low-key approach resonates with people who have seen him in person.

I think Edwards will pull the upset on the Democrat side based on my hunch that he will be the second choice of more people than Hillary or Obama will be. (In the Democrats’ system, if a voter’s first choice doesn’t get a minimum amount of support – I think it is 15 % - that voter gets to recast his/her vote for one of the “viable” candidates.) Also, I think Obama is counting on young, notoriously unreliable voters for his support. The final count may be Edwards: 36%, Clinton: 34% and Obama: 29%.