Bush Retrospective, Part 7

The Home Stretch

The devastating results of the 2006 election left President Bush with few options except to hoard his limited remaining political capital for the war effort. There would be no more quixotic attempts to save Social Security or to overhaul the education system. Nevertheless, there were some personnel matters to deal with.

Immediately after the election, Bush finally let go of Don Rumsfeld, the Secretary of Defense and Iraq War strategist. Many felt that if he had done it earlier, it might have saved a few House and Senate seats. But Bush was loyal to a longtime subordinate, and he said he didn’t want to appear to be playing politics with the election. Or it may be that after Democrats took control of Congress (and the committee chairs), Rumsfeld decided he didn’t need the job bad enough to put up with weekly trips to Capital Hill to be berated by a bunch of yammering publicity hounds.

In an unusual midterm move, the White House also approved firing seven US Attorneys in December. These seven, plus two others removed earlier became the basis of a contentious struggle between Congress and the White House over whether the firings were politically motivated. Ultimately, the fallout from the investigation was severe, even costing AG Alberto Gonzales his job.

Another damaging situation that arose at about this time was skyrocketing crude oil prices that led to gasoline prices reaching $4 per gallon by the summer of 2008. Many blame price speculation for the rapid run-up, and it does appear that enormous leverage can be gained by bidding up prices on a few types of crude. The hike in gasoline prices, though temporary, has inflicted severe, possibly fatal damage to the domestic automobile industry.

But for all his problems, Bush did manage to push through authorization for a “surge” of additional troops to Iraq. Between January and May of 2007, more than 20,000 additional soldiers were sent to Iraq, and 4000 Marines had their tour of duty extended. In addition to the new troops, the Surge included changes in relations with the Iraqi Army and civilians. The Joint Chiefs of Staff had earlier made a number of recommendations that became part of the plan.

The chiefs also want to see a new push on political and economic issues, especially employment programs, reconstruction and political reconciliation, to help quell the problems that have fueled both the Sunni insurgency and Shiite-Sunni sectarian strife, say defense officials and U.S. military officers in Iraq. A new jobs program is considered key to pulling young men from the burgeoning militias.
Pentagon chiefs think that there is no purely military solution for Iraq and that, without major progress on the political and economic fronts, the U.S. intervention is simply buying time, the sources said.

They recognized that the insurgency would die out when the people had jobs, and dependable electricity and could see their lives improving.

Also, General David Petraeus, who would take over the Iraq War, had experience in developing close relations with tribal leaders. This led to the crucial “Anbar Awakening” in which the Sunni tribes that had been fighting against us changed sides.

And, finally the long-ongoing recruiting and training of the Iraqi military began to bear fruit as the Iraqis became capable of more independent operations.

Without these improvements, it is doubtful the Surge would have succeeded on increased troop strength alone. Through the first nine months of 2007, American troop deaths averaged nearly 90 per month. In September, General Petraeus made his report to Congress on the progress of the Surge. His report was preceded by the infamous General Betray-us MoveOn.org ad in the New York Times. The ad was so outrageous that the Senate voted to condemn it by a vote of 72-25.

That vote may have signaled the end of overt organized opposition to the Iraq War in this country. The last three months of 2007 saw combat related American deaths drop abruptly to an average of 33 per month.

There are still suicide bombers in Iraq and the toll on Iraqi civilians, military and police continues. Iraq needs further economic progress and the government must learn better how to attend to all its citizens in order to prevent sectarian violence. It can still go bad.

But, as Iraq improved, the president may have thought things were looking up for his last months in office, and that the Republicans might have a chance in the 2008 election. My next installment will deal with the financial crisis.