The Register leads today's edition with the rather breathless announcement that John Kerry has allegedly taken the lead in Iowa. I'm using the term "allegedly" here because this poll is out of line with so many others taken in Iowa over the last couple of weeks where Bush has held tiny, but consistent, leads of 1 or 2 points. That being said, I don't mind telling you that I'm a little concerned.
There are a few really interesting points in the poll's internals. Bush, as expected, leads among men by nine points, 50 to 41. With women though, Bush is behind by thirteen, 41 to 54. Considering that in the nationwide polls, Bush has been ahead by about a dozen or more with men, and down by only three or four with women, these numbers seem significantly out of line with the rest of the country.
Another interesting point is that while bush is up 89 to 6 among Republicans, Kerry is up 95 to 2 amongst Democrats. While Bush's numbers with Republicans pretty much mirror the national numbers, Kerry's numbers are much stronger. Nationwide, Kerry has averaged probably right around 80 points with Dems, with Bush pulling about 10 percent or so of Dems. Yet, the Register is showing that Kerry is at 95% to Bush's 2% amongst self-identified Dems. That seems odd as well.
Another number that seems awfully odd is the breakdown between rural, small town, small city, and metropolitan. Rural voters go for Bush 50 to 43. Small towns go for Kerry 49 to 42. Small cities go for Kerry by 13, 55 to 42! And then the large cities (or in the Des Moines region, it isn't clear from their use of the term "Metropolitan") it's Bush by 5, 50 to 45.
Now, I submit to you that it is virtually impossible for the metro areas in Iowa (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids/Iowa City, Davenport/Bettendorf, Sioux City, Council Bluffs, Waterloo/Cedar Falls, and Dubuque) to go for Bush by 5 and still have Bush be behind overall. Even if we limit the word "metropolitan" to mean just the Des Moines area, I still find it unthinkable that Bush would behind in the state as a whole if he's up by five in the metro. And, it also difficult for me to believe that Iowa's "small cities" would provide Kerry a 13 point margin.
In another subset of questions, the respondents are asked about personal qualities. Bush leads in five of the six: 50 to 40 as a "strong leader"; 51 to 38 as a "likeable person"; 44 to 42 on "has a strong grasp of the issues"; 46 to 44 on "shares your values"; and 45 to 43 on "honesty." The only one Kerry leads on is "cares about people like me", and there he only leads by 3, 46 to 43. So, we're expected to believe that people are going to vote for the guy they find less likeable, less honest, less strong, less in tune with their values, and less in command of the issues? Am I nuts, or does that seem very odd. Adding to the oddness, even though the electorate supposedly believes that Kerry is less likeable, this lukewarm attitude has translated into a 95 to 2 lead with Democrats. How likely is that?
So, this poll concerns me. It does. But frankly, some of the internals just seem plain wrong. On top of that, the subset of questions on people's opinions of the candidates as humans would have us believe that voters are going to go with the guy they find less capable (my term, but when you feel he's less strong, less in command of the facts, and less honest, that pretty much sums up less capable to me). Something here isn't right.
State 29 has thoughts as well.
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Friday, October 29, 2004
Iowa's Greatest Embarrassment
Iowa has no greater embarrassment than Tom Harkin. That we've reelected this clown on several occasions shoud create overwhelming shame to the residents of the state.
His offense today? Stating that the polls were narrowing because that's what God intends.
If a Republican had said this, it'd be front page news. I can see the headlines, "REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE SAYS GOD IS ON HIS SIDE!!!! Mandatory prayer and stoning of adulterers to begin when sworn in." The press would be in an uproar.
The greatest indictment of Harkin is that at this point, this doesn't even seem out of line. A couple days ago, he penned editorials for some college newspapers in which he announced, against all evidence to the contrary, that if reelected George Bush would be forced to reinstate the draft. We've gotten use to his nutter comments.
Iowa Geek, are you still reading us? If so, are you serious about running against Harkin? If so, how much can I send a year to your campaign account and where do I send the check?
His offense today? Stating that the polls were narrowing because that's what God intends.
If a Republican had said this, it'd be front page news. I can see the headlines, "REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE SAYS GOD IS ON HIS SIDE!!!! Mandatory prayer and stoning of adulterers to begin when sworn in." The press would be in an uproar.
The greatest indictment of Harkin is that at this point, this doesn't even seem out of line. A couple days ago, he penned editorials for some college newspapers in which he announced, against all evidence to the contrary, that if reelected George Bush would be forced to reinstate the draft. We've gotten use to his nutter comments.
Iowa Geek, are you still reading us? If so, are you serious about running against Harkin? If so, how much can I send a year to your campaign account and where do I send the check?
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
269 to 269 What then?
Well much ado has been made about the possibility of an electoral college tie. The most likely scenario that doesn't require Maine's 1st district or a split of Colorado's EVs appears to be Bush takes WI, OH, and NM, Kerry takes FL, MN, and NH. What then? Well the Constitution requires that the House of Representatives take a vote with each State's delegation voting as one block. Currently, Democrats only control 17 delegations, 4 are tied, and the rest are controlled by Republicans. Presumably ties would be forced to abstain absent a sufficient member switch. Most Republican delegations would require at least 2 switchers to change hands. Not likely as there are very few RINOs concentrated in any one delegation. The only Republican delegation that could potentially switch is Deleware because of the RINO status of Chris Shays. Accordingly, the Presidency would almost certainly go to Bush in an EV tie.
The Vice Presidency is more interesting. The Senate chooses the VP in the same fashion. Here the presence of RINO's and a slim Republican advantage could result in Bush-Edwards ticket. Currently, 19 Senate delegations are controlled by the Rs. Zell Miller may vote with Saxby Chamblis to bring GA into the R column also. 18 delegations are in the D column. Thirteen delegations are tied.
Susan Collins and Olympia Snow could easily switch. Chuck Hagel (R-France) for the right price might vote with Ben Nelson to send Nebraska to the D column. Arlen Specter (Kerry's ostensible running mate in PA) might throw Pennsylvania into the tied column. Collins and Snow switching would grant the VP spot to Edwards. Hagle or Specter's shenanigans separately would result in a Senate tie. Together they could send the VP to Edwards.
What happens in the case of a Senate tie? Edwards would certainly be allowed to vote as a member of the South Carolina delegation. Shouldn't Dick Cheney as President of the Senate get to break the tie? It's the only logical solution. Hopefully we'll never find out.
The Vice Presidency is more interesting. The Senate chooses the VP in the same fashion. Here the presence of RINO's and a slim Republican advantage could result in Bush-Edwards ticket. Currently, 19 Senate delegations are controlled by the Rs. Zell Miller may vote with Saxby Chamblis to bring GA into the R column also. 18 delegations are in the D column. Thirteen delegations are tied.
Susan Collins and Olympia Snow could easily switch. Chuck Hagel (R-France) for the right price might vote with Ben Nelson to send Nebraska to the D column. Arlen Specter (Kerry's ostensible running mate in PA) might throw Pennsylvania into the tied column. Collins and Snow switching would grant the VP spot to Edwards. Hagle or Specter's shenanigans separately would result in a Senate tie. Together they could send the VP to Edwards.
What happens in the case of a Senate tie? Edwards would certainly be allowed to vote as a member of the South Carolina delegation. Shouldn't Dick Cheney as President of the Senate get to break the tie? It's the only logical solution. Hopefully we'll never find out.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
I Like Limericks
Royce over at Iowa Libertarian has this to say about Andrew Sullivan endorsing John Kerry:
Yep.
A political pundit named Sullivan
Gives a liberal hack a huge mulligan
All his hopes he will pin
On this tree with a grin
An endorsement he may wish to mull again.
Yep.
Registration Follies
The local NBC affiliate reported last night that Warren County, Iowa has achieved a roughly 106% voter registration rate. That's right, there are roughly 30,000 residents of voting age and there are 32,000 registered voters. Makes you go hmmmm.....
The online version of the story has this to say.
I have one correction. It should say, "A quantity equal to 95% of eligibile Iowans have registered to vote. Because of state and federal laws that make it impossible to prevent voter fraud, there is no guarantee that they actually are living, breathing Iowans."
The online version of the story has this to say.
Just under three million people live in the state of Iowa. The Secretary of State's office tells us that as of today more than 95 percent of eligible Iowans have registered to vote. That's about 2.1 million people.
I have one correction. It should say, "A quantity equal to 95% of eligibile Iowans have registered to vote. Because of state and federal laws that make it impossible to prevent voter fraud, there is no guarantee that they actually are living, breathing Iowans."
The Prez Rallied the Troops
President Bush’s second visit to Davenport this campaign season followed the usual script. Voters faced long lines and intense security precautions before entering, and then a couple of hours wait while local politicos and a singer warmed up the audience. A group of College Republicans from Augustana College passed out signs (Veterans For Bush, Sportsmen For Bush, etc.) and signed up volunteers for the final big election push. Excitement began to mount with the indications that Dubya would soon be there: the appearance of the Secret Service in the crowd, and a hustling crowd of photographers materializing down front. And finally, there he is. It was a genuinely emotional moment. I somehow doubt that Senator Kerry can match him in the enthusiasm and affection his supporters demonstrate.
He was introduced by America’s mayor, Rudy Giuliani, who had himself been introduced by Senator Grassley. Giuliani’s appearance hadn’t been included in the pre-event publicity and he was received with a lot of enthusiasm too. In fact, some people near me tried to get a variation on the “Four More Years” chant going by hollering “In Four Years” for Rudy. Personally, I don’t find Rudy matching my ideology very closely, but he is an inspiring leader and a helluvan American – a good man to have on our side.
Little of the president’s speech was new to me, although it was impressive to hear the entire litany of Kerry’s shortcomings listed in order. “You know where I stand,” he said. “And sometimes you even know where my opponent stands.” Then he went through a list of times Kerry had taken a stand, only to be found by history to be standing in the wrong place. He did have one new joke – about getting Senator Grassley to mow his lawn in Crawford. [If you’re not from Iowa, you probably haven’t seen the Grassley commercial he was referring to. It shows the senator returning every weekend to hitch up a fleet of lawn mowers together to mow his own lawn. I guess it is supposed to show how folksy and still committed to his Iowa home Grassley is. I think it really shows how confident he is of victory over the sacrificial candidate of this year’s election, Art Small. Truth is, Grassley remains very popular with most Iowans. (except State 29)]
As the president continued through the body of his speech – his 5-part plan encompassing family security, family budget, health care, retirement security and bedrock values – he was interrupted ceaselessly by chants and sign-waving. Bill Wundram had a good description in his QCT column, “There is a yell for any excuse or any candidate. It’s like a football game, with a touchdown about every three minutes.” I’d say the cheers were more frequent than that, maybe the same frequency as the USC band plays their “Fight On!” riff.
After the conclusion of the speech our exit was slightly delayed to give the presidential party its opportunity to get away. I was thinking that the size of the crowd in attendance - four to five thousand voters – was just about the size of Gore’s victory margin in Iowa in 2000. Here’s hoping we can turn it around this time. For more details on the speech, check out Ed Tibbetts’ QCTimes column.
Outside the RiverCenter, a pathetically small group of protestors tried to stir up the crowd as it left. What losers. All in all, I would say the four hours I devoted to Bush’s forty minute talk were well worth it. I think I’ll see about getting tickets for Cheney’s visit next Saturday.
He was introduced by America’s mayor, Rudy Giuliani, who had himself been introduced by Senator Grassley. Giuliani’s appearance hadn’t been included in the pre-event publicity and he was received with a lot of enthusiasm too. In fact, some people near me tried to get a variation on the “Four More Years” chant going by hollering “In Four Years” for Rudy. Personally, I don’t find Rudy matching my ideology very closely, but he is an inspiring leader and a helluvan American – a good man to have on our side.
Little of the president’s speech was new to me, although it was impressive to hear the entire litany of Kerry’s shortcomings listed in order. “You know where I stand,” he said. “And sometimes you even know where my opponent stands.” Then he went through a list of times Kerry had taken a stand, only to be found by history to be standing in the wrong place. He did have one new joke – about getting Senator Grassley to mow his lawn in Crawford. [If you’re not from Iowa, you probably haven’t seen the Grassley commercial he was referring to. It shows the senator returning every weekend to hitch up a fleet of lawn mowers together to mow his own lawn. I guess it is supposed to show how folksy and still committed to his Iowa home Grassley is. I think it really shows how confident he is of victory over the sacrificial candidate of this year’s election, Art Small. Truth is, Grassley remains very popular with most Iowans. (except State 29)]
As the president continued through the body of his speech – his 5-part plan encompassing family security, family budget, health care, retirement security and bedrock values – he was interrupted ceaselessly by chants and sign-waving. Bill Wundram had a good description in his QCT column, “There is a yell for any excuse or any candidate. It’s like a football game, with a touchdown about every three minutes.” I’d say the cheers were more frequent than that, maybe the same frequency as the USC band plays their “Fight On!” riff.
After the conclusion of the speech our exit was slightly delayed to give the presidential party its opportunity to get away. I was thinking that the size of the crowd in attendance - four to five thousand voters – was just about the size of Gore’s victory margin in Iowa in 2000. Here’s hoping we can turn it around this time. For more details on the speech, check out Ed Tibbetts’ QCTimes column.
Outside the RiverCenter, a pathetically small group of protestors tried to stir up the crowd as it left. What losers. All in all, I would say the four hours I devoted to Bush’s forty minute talk were well worth it. I think I’ll see about getting tickets for Cheney’s visit next Saturday.
Monday, October 25, 2004
Apropos of Potential Vote Fraud
Continuing a previous theme, I have a few more thoughts on the systemic issues that may create vote fraud in Iowa. I took the time to look up the Iowa pollwatcher's guide and I suspect it is consistent with other states. Pollwatcher's in Iowa are allowed to look at the voter lists and call the names of registered non-voters into party HQ for purposes of getting out the vote. In the abstract, an admirable policy with an admirable goal.
However, let's combine that with some, ahem, aggressive voter registration tactics. (For instance, liberal groups registering cemetaries and phonebooks). Now, the party hac. . . I mean, pollwatcher calls in to HQ with a list of fraudlent names. HQ passes this list on to the union thugs, er, representatives and crazy activists to go round up these "voters." As stated in my prior post, Iowa does not require any type of ID. All a voter does is sign a certification that they are eligible to vote and a US citizen. What is to stop the Teamsters, ACORN and ACT types from sending around a couple dozen college students from out of state with the list of non-voters from each precinct? Hmm?
A simple, completely non-invasive, solution is to require either photo ID or the voter registration card. That way at least the bus load of college students would have minimally harder time gaming the system.
However, let's combine that with some, ahem, aggressive voter registration tactics. (For instance, liberal groups registering cemetaries and phonebooks). Now, the party hac. . . I mean, pollwatcher calls in to HQ with a list of fraudlent names. HQ passes this list on to the union thugs, er, representatives and crazy activists to go round up these "voters." As stated in my prior post, Iowa does not require any type of ID. All a voter does is sign a certification that they are eligible to vote and a US citizen. What is to stop the Teamsters, ACORN and ACT types from sending around a couple dozen college students from out of state with the list of non-voters from each precinct? Hmm?
A simple, completely non-invasive, solution is to require either photo ID or the voter registration card. That way at least the bus load of college students would have minimally harder time gaming the system.
Props to Tim Hagle
A former undergrad professor of mine, Tim Hagle, got some major play in the Des Moines Register today. As Dr. Hogberg noted, the Prairie Pravda reported that the Democrat to Republican ratio at UIowa is 8 to 1. I was shocked by this statistic. There is no way in the 40+ professors from whom I took classes 5+ were Republicans, nominally or otherwise. Nevertheless, Professor Hagle was one of the few and the proud (as soon as he got tenure) and I thank him for his courage. Reading further into the article one notes that 55% identified themselves as Democrats, 28% "independents," and 16% Republicans. (Query: How does that work out to an 8 to 1 ratio?) Let's not forget that the 28% who identify as independents are largely made up of Socialists, watermelons (Green on the outside, red on the inside), and other nutty leftist types. Most of the self-identified Republicans are RINOs (Republicans In Name Only). Apparently diversity is only a goal of the university if it is not diversity of opinion about which one is talking.
When I was at Iowa, other than in Tim Hagle's class, I felt consistent, but not constant, pressure to moderate my views to achieve the grades I deserved. I've always said UIowa's hostility to conservativism has done more to swell the ranks of the Republican party than Rush Limbaugh ever could.
When I was at Iowa, other than in Tim Hagle's class, I felt consistent, but not constant, pressure to moderate my views to achieve the grades I deserved. I've always said UIowa's hostility to conservativism has done more to swell the ranks of the Republican party than Rush Limbaugh ever could.
Minnesota State Fair
Jeff attended the Iowa State Fair and I attended it's weak imitation to the north the Minnesota State Fair. (Just kidding. I don't want the Powerline guys destroying my way of life like a lowly Strib columnist.) Anyway, I was there around the third day (after they had run out of Bush/Cheney gear) and saw about an equivalent amount of Bush and Kerry stickers. A shocker to this Iowegian who still views the land of snow and mosquitoes as reliably liberal.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Fair Sticker Redux
Back in August, I posted on how the absolutely overwhelming majority of people wearing campaign stickers at the State Fair were wearing Bush/Cheney stickers. Over the course of seven hours, I saw three people wearing Kerry stickers. Three. In contrast, I saw dozens of people wearing Bush stickers. The ratio was probably better than 20 to 1.
Also, in one of the exhibition buildings there was a tote board where people could indicate their Presidential Preference. Georege Bush was up 14,000 to 11,000, a spread of 56% to 44%.
Also, in one of the exhibition buildings there was a tote board where people could indicate their Presidential Preference. Georege Bush was up 14,000 to 11,000, a spread of 56% to 44%.
Saturday, October 23, 2004
Art Small Redux
Yesterday I wrote a little bit about my fascination with the radio ads put out by Iowa's U.S. Senate Candidate Art Small.
I'm not the only one who likes these ads. Wide Eyed Insolence has also posted on it. He's even got a link to an MP3 of the famous singing ad. How cool is that? I suggest...no, I demand that you go listen to it right now.
As an added bonus, there's a suggestion that perhaps Art Small and Chuck Grassley should have used a unique format for their debate--battle rap.
I've seen a lot of cool stuff in my life, but that would be AWESOME!
I'm not the only one who likes these ads. Wide Eyed Insolence has also posted on it. He's even got a link to an MP3 of the famous singing ad. How cool is that? I suggest...no, I demand that you go listen to it right now.
As an added bonus, there's a suggestion that perhaps Art Small and Chuck Grassley should have used a unique format for their debate--battle rap.
I've seen a lot of cool stuff in my life, but that would be AWESOME!
Friday, October 22, 2004
POTUS coming to town, again
For the benefit of any unfortunate readers who live in Illinois, or California, or Texas or other states whose electoral votes have, for all practical purpose already been cast, I thought I’d drop in a little note about what it’s like to actually get to attend a rally for the president.
First of all, there isn’t a lot of advance warning that the president is coming. I received a computerized phone call Wednesday evening saying he would have a local rally next Monday, and tickets would be distributed starting at noon Thursday at Republican headquarters. Since my schedule is currently somewhat flexible, I decided to pick up tickets for me and the wife. I arrived at Republican HQ promptly at noon and was gratified to see a line stretching around the corner and halfway down the block.
I’m sorry to report almost all the people in line were white, although a few appeared Hispanic, but the group was very diverse agewise. There were many elderly, but also a lot of families with toddlers, even infants in strollers. I wondered if their mothers realized how long this wait was going to be. The fellow behind me appeared to be about twenty, and spent the entire time on his cellphone trying to line up other family members who might want tickets. (Full disclosure: these days, anyone who doesn’t have gray hair looks to me to be about twenty.)
A cameraman from one of the TV stations went up and down the line asking if there was anybody here who hadn’t made up his mind yet. Later he said he had found some, but they were afraid to admit it in such a partisan crowd. I think he was joking.
By 1:30, I had made it to within 100 feet of the entrance to the building. A campaign worker came through to inform us of the need for picture identification and other security policies applicable to anyone over sixteen years of age. Although I gave her a few helpful suggestions as to how they could speed up the process, I doubt they will be acted upon. But let me just say, Miracle Car Wash is a lot more efficient.
Another fifteen minutes and I’m inside the building. Two minutes to show my identification, give my address, etc. and I have my tickets. Despite rumors to the contrary, I saw no attempt to cross-check my name against Republican voter lists, or any other means of keeping out unbelievers. (Last time Bush was in town, some malcontents raised a stink because they were asked to leave the event just for wearing Kerry t-shirts, or holding “No blood for oil” signs or some such.) Maybe the purpose of the long wait in line is just to discourage all but the truly committed. After a brief chat with the guy recruiting volunteers to work phone banks this weekend, I’m out the door before 2:00.
I think it’s a hopeful sign that so many people are willing to wait in a two-hour line just for the opportunity to see the POTUS give his usual stump speech. We are serious about getting him re-elected. I wonder how long people are willing to wait for Senator Kerry to talk. (h.t. to Battlegrounders) But I have to temper any optimism with the knowledge that none of the thousands of new voter registrations or absentee ballots that have been ginned up, uh, I mean generated were likely to have been represented in this crowd today or the one I’ll be part of on Monday.
First of all, there isn’t a lot of advance warning that the president is coming. I received a computerized phone call Wednesday evening saying he would have a local rally next Monday, and tickets would be distributed starting at noon Thursday at Republican headquarters. Since my schedule is currently somewhat flexible, I decided to pick up tickets for me and the wife. I arrived at Republican HQ promptly at noon and was gratified to see a line stretching around the corner and halfway down the block.
I’m sorry to report almost all the people in line were white, although a few appeared Hispanic, but the group was very diverse agewise. There were many elderly, but also a lot of families with toddlers, even infants in strollers. I wondered if their mothers realized how long this wait was going to be. The fellow behind me appeared to be about twenty, and spent the entire time on his cellphone trying to line up other family members who might want tickets. (Full disclosure: these days, anyone who doesn’t have gray hair looks to me to be about twenty.)
A cameraman from one of the TV stations went up and down the line asking if there was anybody here who hadn’t made up his mind yet. Later he said he had found some, but they were afraid to admit it in such a partisan crowd. I think he was joking.
By 1:30, I had made it to within 100 feet of the entrance to the building. A campaign worker came through to inform us of the need for picture identification and other security policies applicable to anyone over sixteen years of age. Although I gave her a few helpful suggestions as to how they could speed up the process, I doubt they will be acted upon. But let me just say, Miracle Car Wash is a lot more efficient.
Another fifteen minutes and I’m inside the building. Two minutes to show my identification, give my address, etc. and I have my tickets. Despite rumors to the contrary, I saw no attempt to cross-check my name against Republican voter lists, or any other means of keeping out unbelievers. (Last time Bush was in town, some malcontents raised a stink because they were asked to leave the event just for wearing Kerry t-shirts, or holding “No blood for oil” signs or some such.) Maybe the purpose of the long wait in line is just to discourage all but the truly committed. After a brief chat with the guy recruiting volunteers to work phone banks this weekend, I’m out the door before 2:00.
I think it’s a hopeful sign that so many people are willing to wait in a two-hour line just for the opportunity to see the POTUS give his usual stump speech. We are serious about getting him re-elected. I wonder how long people are willing to wait for Senator Kerry to talk. (h.t. to Battlegrounders) But I have to temper any optimism with the knowledge that none of the thousands of new voter registrations or absentee ballots that have been ginned up, uh, I mean generated were likely to have been represented in this crowd today or the one I’ll be part of on Monday.
Welcome Battlegrounders
First many thanks to Dr. Hogberg for pimping us on NRO. It's an honor. Yes, my post below was pessimistic. Given the opportunities for massive fraud I refuse to believe the President will win until the polls close. Further, I won't blow sunshine up anybody's you know what if its not warranted. The northern and western suburbs of Des Moines will vote solidly Republican. The western part of Iowa will vote overwhelmingly Republican. (Frankly, Leonid Bresznev would give his left nut to get the kinds of number GWB will get from Sioux County, and GWB isn't holding a gun to anyone's head. Though Dick Cheney looks pretty menacing, especially to an unaccomplished one term Senator with great hair.)
I would encourage our new visitor's to look around. Specifically, Jeff has taken great pleasure Fisking the columns of the exceedingly moronic Reka Basu. I've taken on the pet issue of Medical Savings Accounts, now known as Health Savings Accounts. Don, our version of Kim Il Sung the eternal leader, has taken on bonuses for state bureaucrats and government squelching innovation.
In the words of Dukakis After Dark (one of the all time funniest SNL skits) "Come on in, won't you?"
I would encourage our new visitor's to look around. Specifically, Jeff has taken great pleasure Fisking the columns of the exceedingly moronic Reka Basu. I've taken on the pet issue of Medical Savings Accounts, now known as Health Savings Accounts. Don, our version of Kim Il Sung the eternal leader, has taken on bonuses for state bureaucrats and government squelching innovation.
In the words of Dukakis After Dark (one of the all time funniest SNL skits) "Come on in, won't you?"
Thursday, October 21, 2004
As A Partial Antidote...
...to Chad's, ahem, somewhat pessimistic post below, let me offer this.
Yesterday, John Kerry and George Bush both campaigned in northern Iowa. Bush was in Mason City and Kerry was about thirty or so miles to the east in Waterloo. Both apparently gave pretty standard stump speaches. Nothing to interesting. But, if you look at the attendance figures, you'll note that Bush had twice as many in his crowd as Kerry did, 4000 to 2000. What's even more impressive is that Mason City is a town of about 30,000 while Waterloo is about 60,000 or 70,000.
That pretty much follows a trend. Throughout Iowa, Bush has been pulling large crowds. The famous day several weeks back when Bush and Kerry were both in Davenport within a couple of blocks of each other, Bush had between 10,000 and 13,000. Just a week or so ago, Bush was in Cedar Rapids. From the television coverage, it appeared that the entire floor and lower bowl of the U.S. Cellular Center were full with the upper tier of seats maybe a third or more full. That'd be a crowd of at least 5000 or 6000, and probably more like 8000.
So, the support is here for Bush. The key is whether or not that support translates into votes.
Yesterday, John Kerry and George Bush both campaigned in northern Iowa. Bush was in Mason City and Kerry was about thirty or so miles to the east in Waterloo. Both apparently gave pretty standard stump speaches. Nothing to interesting. But, if you look at the attendance figures, you'll note that Bush had twice as many in his crowd as Kerry did, 4000 to 2000. What's even more impressive is that Mason City is a town of about 30,000 while Waterloo is about 60,000 or 70,000.
That pretty much follows a trend. Throughout Iowa, Bush has been pulling large crowds. The famous day several weeks back when Bush and Kerry were both in Davenport within a couple of blocks of each other, Bush had between 10,000 and 13,000. Just a week or so ago, Bush was in Cedar Rapids. From the television coverage, it appeared that the entire floor and lower bowl of the U.S. Cellular Center were full with the upper tier of seats maybe a third or more full. That'd be a crowd of at least 5000 or 6000, and probably more like 8000.
So, the support is here for Bush. The key is whether or not that support translates into votes.
Iowa's Singing Senate Candidate
Are any other markets in Iowa getting the ads for Art Small, Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate?
I have a confession to make. I love Art Small's radio ads. My favorite is the one where he appears to sing. Yes, you read that right, sings. The lyrics are something like: How you gonna keep a boy down on the farm once he's been in D.C.? Then he drops in some spoken words about how long Chuck Grassley has been a member of Congress. It's good stuff.
In his other radio spot, the tag line is "When you go to the polls, think big but vote Small."
I have no doubt that Chuck Grassley will crush Mr. Small in the election, but at the very least, Art Small brought us these ads.
I have a confession to make. I love Art Small's radio ads. My favorite is the one where he appears to sing. Yes, you read that right, sings. The lyrics are something like: How you gonna keep a boy down on the farm once he's been in D.C.? Then he drops in some spoken words about how long Chuck Grassley has been a member of Congress. It's good stuff.
In his other radio spot, the tag line is "When you go to the polls, think big but vote Small."
I have no doubt that Chuck Grassley will crush Mr. Small in the election, but at the very least, Art Small brought us these ads.
Nick Kristoff in Iran
Fascinating report filed by the New York Times' Nick Kristoff from Iran. The report consists of a series of essentially man-on-the-street interviews with Iranians as they go about their daily lives. What's really interesting is how relentlessly hostile they are to the regime. Even the rural men who Mr. Kristoff expects to be religious conservatives and supportive of the regime don't have much good to say about the 1979 Revolution that brought the Ayatollah Khomenie to power.
I'm not sure how quick any of the video will download on a dial-up connection, but if you've got DSL or a cable modem, give it a look.
I'm not sure how quick any of the video will download on a dial-up connection, but if you've got DSL or a cable modem, give it a look.
Further Iowa Updates
Things are not all fuzzy kittens and rainbows for GWB in Iowa. As Scott Johnson of the Powerline notes, Minnesota has so much red shift it may well reach escape velocity before November 2. Iowa on the other hand has steadily been trending blue and sinking quietly into the earth under the weight of farm subsidies, youth flight, and the highest tax burden in the midwest.
As Jeff mentions below, things look OK for the GOP in Des Moines from the standpoint of enthusiasm. However, on the legal side things are dimming quickly. First, absentee ballots in Iowa may indeed result in a debacle of Floridian proportions. In Iowa, a voter need not be present to register or request an absentee ballot. Further, Iowa allows private individuals who take an hour long class to pick up and deliver ballots to the polling place. The class is a negative tutorial in voter fraud (don’t look in the envelope, deliver all of them, don’t assist voters in filling them out).
Second, it appears that Iowa is not immune to the voter suits occurring across the country insofar as Iowa (GASP) requires you to show up at the right precinct to cast a provisional ballot and also (GASP, GASP) certify that you are a citizen. Note: we do not ask for any actual verification of citizenship. That would be racist.
In addition to the demographic trends Kerry seems to be genuinely popular in central Iowa. He has had a couple large rallies. There are lots of yard signs and bumper stickers out there. He also has the state teachers union and the government employees union endorsement (free labor). This is even more significant in the state of Iowa where 240,000 people work for government at all levels in a state with a population under 3 million and a workforce of less than 2 million. I fear this state is turning into France on the Mississippi. God even our state capitol name is French. I'm depressed.
As Jeff mentions below, things look OK for the GOP in Des Moines from the standpoint of enthusiasm. However, on the legal side things are dimming quickly. First, absentee ballots in Iowa may indeed result in a debacle of Floridian proportions. In Iowa, a voter need not be present to register or request an absentee ballot. Further, Iowa allows private individuals who take an hour long class to pick up and deliver ballots to the polling place. The class is a negative tutorial in voter fraud (don’t look in the envelope, deliver all of them, don’t assist voters in filling them out).
Second, it appears that Iowa is not immune to the voter suits occurring across the country insofar as Iowa (GASP) requires you to show up at the right precinct to cast a provisional ballot and also (GASP, GASP) certify that you are a citizen. Note: we do not ask for any actual verification of citizenship. That would be racist.
In addition to the demographic trends Kerry seems to be genuinely popular in central Iowa. He has had a couple large rallies. There are lots of yard signs and bumper stickers out there. He also has the state teachers union and the government employees union endorsement (free labor). This is even more significant in the state of Iowa where 240,000 people work for government at all levels in a state with a population under 3 million and a workforce of less than 2 million. I fear this state is turning into France on the Mississippi. God even our state capitol name is French. I'm depressed.
GOTV Efforts Here in Polk County, Iowa
Four years ago, George Bush lost Iowa by a mere 4,144 votes. He lost Polk County, home to Des Moines, by about 10,000 votes. A big part of the reason that Polk County was so lopsided in favor of Gore was that the local GOP failed to deliver enough volunteers to help with get-out-the-vote efforts.
The local GOP has vowed not to let it happen again. The last four years have been spent identifying and developing volunteer lists. Those lists are being put to good use in staffing the RNC's 72-Hour GOTV efforts the final weekend before the election. Last night was our final Central Committee for the Polk County GOP prior to the election. There was no bragging or promising victory, but there was a sense of purpose and drive. Most of the questions asked by those attending involved what types of volunteer activity was needed and when. The sense I get is that the vast majority that are volunteering are new to it, volunteering for the first time. If I understood correctly, we are about 80% of the way to having the desired 1200 slots for the 72-Hour GOTV efforts staffed here in Polk County. That's several hundred volunteers each volunteering for one or two four hour sessions. They made a point of saying that we are going to have poll watchers in precincts where we've never had them before. That should help cut down on some of the opposition's shenanigans.
More volunteers are still necessary, and even if the efforts were fully staffed, extra hands can always be put to use. That being said, I left the meeting last night feeling that at the very least, the Polk County GOP wasn't going to leave any votes on the table. Pull that off, and likely GOP margins in the rest of the state might put us over the top.
The local GOP has vowed not to let it happen again. The last four years have been spent identifying and developing volunteer lists. Those lists are being put to good use in staffing the RNC's 72-Hour GOTV efforts the final weekend before the election. Last night was our final Central Committee for the Polk County GOP prior to the election. There was no bragging or promising victory, but there was a sense of purpose and drive. Most of the questions asked by those attending involved what types of volunteer activity was needed and when. The sense I get is that the vast majority that are volunteering are new to it, volunteering for the first time. If I understood correctly, we are about 80% of the way to having the desired 1200 slots for the 72-Hour GOTV efforts staffed here in Polk County. That's several hundred volunteers each volunteering for one or two four hour sessions. They made a point of saying that we are going to have poll watchers in precincts where we've never had them before. That should help cut down on some of the opposition's shenanigans.
More volunteers are still necessary, and even if the efforts were fully staffed, extra hands can always be put to use. That being said, I left the meeting last night feeling that at the very least, the Polk County GOP wasn't going to leave any votes on the table. Pull that off, and likely GOP margins in the rest of the state might put us over the top.
Local Issues Affecting Central Iowa Elections
In addition to the get-out-the-vote efforts in which both parties are engaging, there are a couple of local issues that will affect just exactly who turns out to the polls on November 2.
Here in Polk County, we are voting on whether or not to consolidate the city and county government. Proponents say that it'll be a good way to eliminate duplicative programs and positions. Opponents say that it will give the suburbs too much say in how the central city of Des Moines functions while allowing those same suburbs to remain fairly autonomous.
Now, this political fault lines on this issue generally don't break down by party affiliation. It's more about geography--the south side of Des Moines wields a disproportionate share of the power in the city, and it doesn't want to lose that influence. So, the south side will pull out the stops to crush this proposal. On the whole, that's a boon to Kerry support as the south side is probably the most reliably Democrat portion of the city. That'll make it a little tougher on Bush here in Polk County.
Potentially balancing that issue out is the referendum on gambling that is taking place in Dallas, Warren, and Madison Counties (on the west, south, and southwest borders of Polk County, respectively). Former insurance executive Gary Kirke is attempting to bring a floating casino to the western suburbs of Des Moines. In order to do so, it must be authorized by a majority vote in the county where it is to be located. Hedging his bets, Mr. Kirke has gotten the issue on the ballot in all three counties.
Most of the people who live in Dallas County moved there to get away from the city and enjoy the quiet suburban life. The same is true, though to a lesser extent, in Madison and Warren Counties. The residents of these counties tend to be both socially and fiscally conservative. They aren't thrilled with the idea of a casino setting up shop down the street from their homes and kids. When thee city council in Waukee (Dallas County) held an informational meeting about six weeks back to discuss the issue, several hundred people showed up to voice their displeasure. You probably could've counted the casino supporters on your fingers. Look for the casino issue to drive up the GOP vote in those counties.
Here in Polk County, we are voting on whether or not to consolidate the city and county government. Proponents say that it'll be a good way to eliminate duplicative programs and positions. Opponents say that it will give the suburbs too much say in how the central city of Des Moines functions while allowing those same suburbs to remain fairly autonomous.
Now, this political fault lines on this issue generally don't break down by party affiliation. It's more about geography--the south side of Des Moines wields a disproportionate share of the power in the city, and it doesn't want to lose that influence. So, the south side will pull out the stops to crush this proposal. On the whole, that's a boon to Kerry support as the south side is probably the most reliably Democrat portion of the city. That'll make it a little tougher on Bush here in Polk County.
Potentially balancing that issue out is the referendum on gambling that is taking place in Dallas, Warren, and Madison Counties (on the west, south, and southwest borders of Polk County, respectively). Former insurance executive Gary Kirke is attempting to bring a floating casino to the western suburbs of Des Moines. In order to do so, it must be authorized by a majority vote in the county where it is to be located. Hedging his bets, Mr. Kirke has gotten the issue on the ballot in all three counties.
Most of the people who live in Dallas County moved there to get away from the city and enjoy the quiet suburban life. The same is true, though to a lesser extent, in Madison and Warren Counties. The residents of these counties tend to be both socially and fiscally conservative. They aren't thrilled with the idea of a casino setting up shop down the street from their homes and kids. When thee city council in Waukee (Dallas County) held an informational meeting about six weeks back to discuss the issue, several hundred people showed up to voice their displeasure. You probably could've counted the casino supporters on your fingers. Look for the casino issue to drive up the GOP vote in those counties.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Jimmy Carter: Jackass
Jimmy Carter, the man who never met a totalitarian dictator that he didn't like, speculates that the U.S. could have achieved independence without all the nastiness of the American Revolution had we just been patient and had the British just been more understanding of the legitimate grievances of the colonies.
Iowa Libertarian sums it up by saying, "What a F#$*ing Idiot." That about covers it.
Iowa Libertarian sums it up by saying, "What a F#$*ing Idiot." That about covers it.
Where In the World is Osama Bin Laden
Here are a couple of posts discussing the likelihood that OBL is pushing up daisy cutter fragments.
The first comes from Astute Blogger. He theorizes that the announced alliance between Zarqawi and OBL is proof that OBL is dead.
The second, from Belgravia Dispatch investigates the history of OBL's video tape appearances, and the dearth of verifiable examples of same since December of 2001.
Me, I've thought for a while that it's probably better than 50/50 that OBL has shuffled off from this mortal plain. The question always asked is, why wouldn't the Bush Administration trumpet such news. I can think of several reasons.
1) It denies OBL martyrdom.
2) It may protect specific intelligence sources. i.e. We have confirmation of his death from intercepted phone, emails, or from an inside informant. We don't want to compromise the source, so we don't confirm his death. Such tactics are not unheard of. During World War II, after the U.S. had broken the Japanese code, the Japanese military sought to fly the admiral responsible for the planning of the attack on Pearl Harbor discreetly on a Japanese bomber plane. We knew exactly which plane he was on and specifically targeted it. The success of our mission was not publicized because it would have tipped our hand. Better to let the Japanese think it was just bad luck that particular plane had gotten hit. Similar thing here.
3) It prevents the Bush Administration from being embarrassed. Suppose that they are 90% sure OBL is history. Do you want to be the person who comes out and says, "Yep, we got him...months ago," just to have him pop up on the news the next day? No thank you.
4) It may allow us to draw out others terrorists leaders who have the misbegotten belief that we are still looking for OBL. Thinking that they are not the target, they may be more likely to stick their neck out a little further or take more chances than they otherwise might.
Now, I'm not saying that OBL is for certain dead. But, from the evidence available, there is grounds for speculating that he is. It isn't naive or silly to believe that he's already on the receiving end of Justice with a capital J.
The first comes from Astute Blogger. He theorizes that the announced alliance between Zarqawi and OBL is proof that OBL is dead.
The second, from Belgravia Dispatch investigates the history of OBL's video tape appearances, and the dearth of verifiable examples of same since December of 2001.
Me, I've thought for a while that it's probably better than 50/50 that OBL has shuffled off from this mortal plain. The question always asked is, why wouldn't the Bush Administration trumpet such news. I can think of several reasons.
1) It denies OBL martyrdom.
2) It may protect specific intelligence sources. i.e. We have confirmation of his death from intercepted phone, emails, or from an inside informant. We don't want to compromise the source, so we don't confirm his death. Such tactics are not unheard of. During World War II, after the U.S. had broken the Japanese code, the Japanese military sought to fly the admiral responsible for the planning of the attack on Pearl Harbor discreetly on a Japanese bomber plane. We knew exactly which plane he was on and specifically targeted it. The success of our mission was not publicized because it would have tipped our hand. Better to let the Japanese think it was just bad luck that particular plane had gotten hit. Similar thing here.
3) It prevents the Bush Administration from being embarrassed. Suppose that they are 90% sure OBL is history. Do you want to be the person who comes out and says, "Yep, we got him...months ago," just to have him pop up on the news the next day? No thank you.
4) It may allow us to draw out others terrorists leaders who have the misbegotten belief that we are still looking for OBL. Thinking that they are not the target, they may be more likely to stick their neck out a little further or take more chances than they otherwise might.
Now, I'm not saying that OBL is for certain dead. But, from the evidence available, there is grounds for speculating that he is. It isn't naive or silly to believe that he's already on the receiving end of Justice with a capital J.
New Feature at NRO
National Review Online has a new pre-election feature called Battlegrounders. It's a group blog featuring commentary from people in various battleground states, including Iowa. No, we aren't Iowa correspondents, but David Hogberg is one of them.
Monday, October 18, 2004
Saw Something Interesting Today...
...on CNN. A full-blown story on the U.N. Oil for Food Scandal. It was actually fairly negative towards Kofi Annan. It mentioned, by name, Annan's son and how he was hip-deep in the scandal.
If CNN is covering it, this story must actually be gaining some traction in the MSM. If it manages to take up even a fraction of the MSM's attention during the next couple of weeks, I think it would be utterly crushing to John Kerry. I can't think of anything that is more damning to the John Kerry position on foreign policy than substantiated corruption of the U.N. How exactly can you hope to convince Americans that they should trust the U.N.--or most of its constituent nations--when it's leadership is on the take from brutal dictators? This isn't some sort of "conflict of interest" or theorhetical, wink wink, nudge nudge, cozy business relationships type corruption. Okay, it is, but it's also good old-fashioned send-me-an-envelope-with-stacks-of-cash corruption. Pretty easy for the average voter to understand.
Also, pretty easy for the average voter to come to the conclusion that maybe we don't need to either seek or obtain the blessing of this organization before we act on the international stage.
If CNN is covering it, this story must actually be gaining some traction in the MSM. If it manages to take up even a fraction of the MSM's attention during the next couple of weeks, I think it would be utterly crushing to John Kerry. I can't think of anything that is more damning to the John Kerry position on foreign policy than substantiated corruption of the U.N. How exactly can you hope to convince Americans that they should trust the U.N.--or most of its constituent nations--when it's leadership is on the take from brutal dictators? This isn't some sort of "conflict of interest" or theorhetical, wink wink, nudge nudge, cozy business relationships type corruption. Okay, it is, but it's also good old-fashioned send-me-an-envelope-with-stacks-of-cash corruption. Pretty easy for the average voter to understand.
Also, pretty easy for the average voter to come to the conclusion that maybe we don't need to either seek or obtain the blessing of this organization before we act on the international stage.
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
The Last Debate
Much better for the President. I'll be stunned if the talking heads in the MSM declare him the winner, but he more than held his own. It was much better than the first debate.
The guys at Fox News--Mort Kondrake, Bill Kristol, and Fred Barnes--were pretty much agreeing that Bush had won, but I doubt that'll be what we hear throughout the day tomorrow. Mort, in particular, was pretty hoarked off about Kerry bringing up the fact that Dick Cheney's daughter is a lesbian. If I understood him, he seemed to believe that it was some sort of nefarious attempt by Kerry to suppress Bush's support. I have to believe that if that's the goal, it's doomed to fail. I don't think anyone is judging Cheney by his daughter.
The guys at Fox News--Mort Kondrake, Bill Kristol, and Fred Barnes--were pretty much agreeing that Bush had won, but I doubt that'll be what we hear throughout the day tomorrow. Mort, in particular, was pretty hoarked off about Kerry bringing up the fact that Dick Cheney's daughter is a lesbian. If I understood him, he seemed to believe that it was some sort of nefarious attempt by Kerry to suppress Bush's support. I have to believe that if that's the goal, it's doomed to fail. I don't think anyone is judging Cheney by his daughter.
Local Congressional Election
I'm watching Stan Thompson debate Leonard Boswell. Jeez. Boswell has this rather moderate type image. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. This guy is a garden-variety liberal Democrat.
Marching in step with the Democrat leadership on how he voted in favor of merely giving the President authority to go to war. He never imagined that he'd actually, you know, go to war if Saddam didn't comply.
Taking credit for "creating" 84,000 jobs in Iowa. When pressed by Stan to let us know what those jobs are, he replied that some studies indicate that every billion dollars in highway funds leads to 47,000 jobs and requested that we "do the math."
Stan needs to be more aggressive here. He should have said, "Mr. Boswell, you don't get to pat yourself on the back for voting to take money from hardworking Iowans and then take credit for creating jobs. If that tax money hadn't been coercively taken, those individual Iowans would have spent it on cars and home additions. Local manufacturing and research companies would have added new technicians and mechanics. No sir, you don't get to give yourself credit for that. You don't get to take credit for preventing good jobs from developing here."
Gracious, the viewer questions that they are using are just absolutely pinko. "No Child Left Behind is a terribly failure, what are you going to do about it." "Health care is a mess, are you going to spend more money on it."
Stan is supporting drug reimportation. I'm personally sort of wishy washy on the whole reimportation thing. It's terrible in the short term, but in the long run, it'll stop Canada from using price controls to freeload on our research and development costs.
Okay, Stan just hoarked me off. He said that he's not in favor of reforming Social Security by allowing for personal retirement accounts. He just wants to expand 401(k)s and IRAs. Booo!
All in all, I'd call that a bit of a draw. Stan looks better, and he doesn't have quite the propensity to ramble that Boswell does. Boswell does have a folksy sort of appeal, but man, he's a lot more liberal than you'd think. In contrast, Thompson isn't as conservative as you'd think.
Marching in step with the Democrat leadership on how he voted in favor of merely giving the President authority to go to war. He never imagined that he'd actually, you know, go to war if Saddam didn't comply.
Taking credit for "creating" 84,000 jobs in Iowa. When pressed by Stan to let us know what those jobs are, he replied that some studies indicate that every billion dollars in highway funds leads to 47,000 jobs and requested that we "do the math."
Stan needs to be more aggressive here. He should have said, "Mr. Boswell, you don't get to pat yourself on the back for voting to take money from hardworking Iowans and then take credit for creating jobs. If that tax money hadn't been coercively taken, those individual Iowans would have spent it on cars and home additions. Local manufacturing and research companies would have added new technicians and mechanics. No sir, you don't get to give yourself credit for that. You don't get to take credit for preventing good jobs from developing here."
Gracious, the viewer questions that they are using are just absolutely pinko. "No Child Left Behind is a terribly failure, what are you going to do about it." "Health care is a mess, are you going to spend more money on it."
Stan is supporting drug reimportation. I'm personally sort of wishy washy on the whole reimportation thing. It's terrible in the short term, but in the long run, it'll stop Canada from using price controls to freeload on our research and development costs.
Okay, Stan just hoarked me off. He said that he's not in favor of reforming Social Security by allowing for personal retirement accounts. He just wants to expand 401(k)s and IRAs. Booo!
All in all, I'd call that a bit of a draw. Stan looks better, and he doesn't have quite the propensity to ramble that Boswell does. Boswell does have a folksy sort of appeal, but man, he's a lot more liberal than you'd think. In contrast, Thompson isn't as conservative as you'd think.
Vile
That's the only way to describe this story. Truly, utterly, and absolutely vile.
The Tennessee Democrats that distributed this flier should be ashamed. And Republicans should always remember this when we hear some allegation of how we are supposedly labeling an opponent as "unpatriotic."
The Tennessee Democrats that distributed this flier should be ashamed. And Republicans should always remember this when we hear some allegation of how we are supposedly labeling an opponent as "unpatriotic."
Monday, October 11, 2004
EU Lifts Sanctions on Libya
The European Union lifted the sanctions it had imposed on Libya, some of which dated back to 1986. The EU is following the U.N. and U.S. which lifted their respective sanctions over the course of the last several months. The sanctions were lifted as a result of Libya giving up its WMD program and allowing for pretty unfettered access for inspections.
This is just one more step in what is a huge huge accomplishment for the Bush administration. Admittedly, I'd still rather have a gila monster in my sock than Qadafi in my pocket, but from all appearances Libya is giving the world good reason to loosen the reins. (Note, it's one step at a time in the international twelve-step recovery program; the remainder of the article talks about the human rights abuses which continue.) There's a long way to go, but this is big news and should be getting more press than it has.
This is just one more step in what is a huge huge accomplishment for the Bush administration. Admittedly, I'd still rather have a gila monster in my sock than Qadafi in my pocket, but from all appearances Libya is giving the world good reason to loosen the reins. (Note, it's one step at a time in the international twelve-step recovery program; the remainder of the article talks about the human rights abuses which continue.) There's a long way to go, but this is big news and should be getting more press than it has.
Gripping Hard in Lincoln
Take sharp objects away from any Nebraska Cornhusker fans you know. They suffered the most lop-sided loss in the school's history this Saturday, a 70-10 shellacking at the hands of the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
There athletic director is probably lucky that it wasn't a home game. If it had been, I suspect that a crimson and cream army seventy-thousand strong would have marched on his house ready to run him out of town on a rail.
There athletic director is probably lucky that it wasn't a home game. If it had been, I suspect that a crimson and cream army seventy-thousand strong would have marched on his house ready to run him out of town on a rail.
Took the Weekend Off from News
I made a conscious decision to stay away from the news this weekend. The first debate had sent me into such a free-floating, deep-blue, funk, that I skipped the Friday Night Presidential Debate. I figured my blood pressure wouldn't be able to take it. Then Saturday I saw nothing but Sports Center, spending most of the day on the road to and from Burlington. And, I spent todat at a picnic, followed by a run to Marshalltown to help my brother.
Apparently, the news gets along better when I'm not paying attention.
By almost all reports, Bush did much better in this debate. Australia's Prime Minister, and staunch American ally, John Howard won reelection to an unprecedented fourth term while his party simultaneously added seats in the Australian Parliament. Afghanistan, despite a few hiccups, held its first election in God-knows-how-long without nearly the disruptions that the Taliban remnants had promised.
(I know, I should really have some links in there, but I got back late this evening, and frankly, I'm tired.)
Apparently, the news gets along better when I'm not paying attention.
By almost all reports, Bush did much better in this debate. Australia's Prime Minister, and staunch American ally, John Howard won reelection to an unprecedented fourth term while his party simultaneously added seats in the Australian Parliament. Afghanistan, despite a few hiccups, held its first election in God-knows-how-long without nearly the disruptions that the Taliban remnants had promised.
(I know, I should really have some links in there, but I got back late this evening, and frankly, I'm tired.)
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Going Back to the Sports Franchises Well
About a month ago or so, the name of Iowa's new American Hockey League team was announced--and it was lame.
The Iowa Stars.
That's it? That's the best we could come up with? Come on.
Look, I realize that there isn't a lot of built-in support for hockey in central Iowa and so they wanted to identify themselves with the parent club in the National Hockey League. But hmmm....the NHL isn't even playing this year since there's a lockout right now. The parent club, if the NHL ever does start playing again, is the Dallas Stars, a team which is probably about the fifth most popular NHL team in the area (and the hockey fan base is pretty darn small to begin with) behind at least the Blackhawks and Avalanche. So, it's not like they are attaching themselves to an entity with real brand recognition to begin with. I just don't get why they went with Iowa Stars.
While I understand, sort of, the desire to get a marketing link to the parent club, I would think that it is more important to develop a local fan base loyal to a team from this area rather than trying to attach them to the Dallas Stars. Deals which allign minor league teams to a parent club tend to be transient. If the team doesn't go under first, at the end of the initial five-year deal, my guess is that the Iowa Stars will sign with a new team. And then, they'll have a new name and need to start building a brand new identity.
On the upside, I do like the color combination of green and gold as the primary colors. It sort of goes with the trend of the state universities using gold as a color. And, with all the farming, green is sort of a natural color for a team from this area as well.
The Iowa Stars.
That's it? That's the best we could come up with? Come on.
Look, I realize that there isn't a lot of built-in support for hockey in central Iowa and so they wanted to identify themselves with the parent club in the National Hockey League. But hmmm....the NHL isn't even playing this year since there's a lockout right now. The parent club, if the NHL ever does start playing again, is the Dallas Stars, a team which is probably about the fifth most popular NHL team in the area (and the hockey fan base is pretty darn small to begin with) behind at least the Blackhawks and Avalanche. So, it's not like they are attaching themselves to an entity with real brand recognition to begin with. I just don't get why they went with Iowa Stars.
While I understand, sort of, the desire to get a marketing link to the parent club, I would think that it is more important to develop a local fan base loyal to a team from this area rather than trying to attach them to the Dallas Stars. Deals which allign minor league teams to a parent club tend to be transient. If the team doesn't go under first, at the end of the initial five-year deal, my guess is that the Iowa Stars will sign with a new team. And then, they'll have a new name and need to start building a brand new identity.
On the upside, I do like the color combination of green and gold as the primary colors. It sort of goes with the trend of the state universities using gold as a color. And, with all the farming, green is sort of a natural color for a team from this area as well.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Debating Veep Style
I thought that the Vice President won tonight's debate. Perhaps it was a narrow victory, but it was a victory nonetheless.
Initially, I was a bit more pessimistic, thinking that it was a draw with an edge to Cheney on substance and an edge to Edwards on presentation. But, the analysis from around the web and even the MSM punditry is beginning to convince me that perhaps I was grading Cheney on a bit steeper curve than I should have been.
I thought that Cheney's best moment was in the exchange regarding the size of our coalition in Iraq. After discussing that we have 30 allies in Iraq, Cheney made a point of calling the new Iraqi government our most important ally. I thought that was excellent. But what followed was the true shining moment of the debate.
On a previous question, Edwards had tried to make hay of the fact that 90% of coalition casualties were American. Cheney had quickly countered that Iraqi casualties were actually at least 50% and that American casualties constituted about 90% of the other half. I appreciated the correction because, frankly, it was new information to me. Now, when Edwards tried to respond to Cheney's answer concerning the number of countries in the coalition, he attempted to use Cheney's numbers from that earlier response and said that 90% of coalition casualties were American, and he placed a heavy emphasis on the word "coalition."
Cheney brought him up short on that one. Almost before Edwards had finished, basically interrupting him, Cheney responded that Edwards was denigrating the sacrifices of Iraqis by refusing to see them as members of the coalition. It was an excellent rebuttal.
The subtext of the exchange was important as well. Edwards had, to my eye, sort of given his "90% of coalition casualties" response with a bit of smugness--as if to say, "Hey, I can use your numbers but I'm still right." But what ended up happening was that instead of making a point about how the U.S. needs allies, he just reminded everyone that he just doesn't get what's happening there; that he's more interested in some esoteric debate point about whether it's 30, 31, or 32 allies makes a coalition legitimate rather than in recognizing that other people are making the ultimate sacrifice.
The exchange also seemed a little bit like a discussion in a college classroom, where a student makes an uninformed statement concerning a subject the professor has spent years studying. A little chastened, but a little resentful, after being corrected by the professor, the student will sometimes try to make one more run at getting that same uninformed position past the professor by phrasing it in a different way, perhaps using some phrase or keyword that the professor used while correcting him. The professor unphased because he's had some kid do this every sememster for the past ten years just comes back with a curt response that the kid still doesn't get it and to come back after they've actually learned something.
It'll be interesting to see how others see this in the next couple of days.
Initially, I was a bit more pessimistic, thinking that it was a draw with an edge to Cheney on substance and an edge to Edwards on presentation. But, the analysis from around the web and even the MSM punditry is beginning to convince me that perhaps I was grading Cheney on a bit steeper curve than I should have been.
I thought that Cheney's best moment was in the exchange regarding the size of our coalition in Iraq. After discussing that we have 30 allies in Iraq, Cheney made a point of calling the new Iraqi government our most important ally. I thought that was excellent. But what followed was the true shining moment of the debate.
On a previous question, Edwards had tried to make hay of the fact that 90% of coalition casualties were American. Cheney had quickly countered that Iraqi casualties were actually at least 50% and that American casualties constituted about 90% of the other half. I appreciated the correction because, frankly, it was new information to me. Now, when Edwards tried to respond to Cheney's answer concerning the number of countries in the coalition, he attempted to use Cheney's numbers from that earlier response and said that 90% of coalition casualties were American, and he placed a heavy emphasis on the word "coalition."
Cheney brought him up short on that one. Almost before Edwards had finished, basically interrupting him, Cheney responded that Edwards was denigrating the sacrifices of Iraqis by refusing to see them as members of the coalition. It was an excellent rebuttal.
The subtext of the exchange was important as well. Edwards had, to my eye, sort of given his "90% of coalition casualties" response with a bit of smugness--as if to say, "Hey, I can use your numbers but I'm still right." But what ended up happening was that instead of making a point about how the U.S. needs allies, he just reminded everyone that he just doesn't get what's happening there; that he's more interested in some esoteric debate point about whether it's 30, 31, or 32 allies makes a coalition legitimate rather than in recognizing that other people are making the ultimate sacrifice.
The exchange also seemed a little bit like a discussion in a college classroom, where a student makes an uninformed statement concerning a subject the professor has spent years studying. A little chastened, but a little resentful, after being corrected by the professor, the student will sometimes try to make one more run at getting that same uninformed position past the professor by phrasing it in a different way, perhaps using some phrase or keyword that the professor used while correcting him. The professor unphased because he's had some kid do this every sememster for the past ten years just comes back with a curt response that the kid still doesn't get it and to come back after they've actually learned something.
It'll be interesting to see how others see this in the next couple of days.
Monday, October 04, 2004
Supporting Professional Sports Franchises
Interesting article from MSNBC.com on what cities have enough economic activity to support teams in five major sports leagues (Major League Baseball, the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League, and Major League Soccer).
The study on which the article is based was done by the American City Business Journals and looked totaled up the total individual income in 172 U.S. markets then compared those numbers to how much of an income base it takes to support teams in each league. Major League Baseball requires the largest income base, around $70 billion. The least expensive is Major League Soccer which requires a mere $12 billion.
The really interesting thing here is that of cities which have no franchises in any of the five leagues, Des Moines ranks sixth in total personal income at $47.2 billion. We are behind only Las Vegas (NV), Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point (NC), Grand Rapids (MI), Norfolk/Virginia Beach (VA), and Syracuse (NY). That means Des Moines has total personal income in excess of such other metro areas as Austin, Birmingham, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Omaha, Fresno, Madison, Tucson, Louisville, Lexington, and Honolulu.
I find that quite surprising. I believe that each and every one of those metro areas has a significantly larger population base. Heck, I believe that each of the five metro areas ahead of Des Moines are all at least sixty or seventy percent larger than Des Moines. The obvious extrapolation is that Des Moines is a relatively affluent city.
My point? I don't really have one. I think that population base and television market size still have a far larger importance to supporting a sports franchise than total personal income. But, I think it does show that Des Moines is not some sort of pay scale sink hole like the local media would have you believe whenever they do a "Why oh why are the kids leaving?" story.
The study on which the article is based was done by the American City Business Journals and looked totaled up the total individual income in 172 U.S. markets then compared those numbers to how much of an income base it takes to support teams in each league. Major League Baseball requires the largest income base, around $70 billion. The least expensive is Major League Soccer which requires a mere $12 billion.
The really interesting thing here is that of cities which have no franchises in any of the five leagues, Des Moines ranks sixth in total personal income at $47.2 billion. We are behind only Las Vegas (NV), Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point (NC), Grand Rapids (MI), Norfolk/Virginia Beach (VA), and Syracuse (NY). That means Des Moines has total personal income in excess of such other metro areas as Austin, Birmingham, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Omaha, Fresno, Madison, Tucson, Louisville, Lexington, and Honolulu.
I find that quite surprising. I believe that each and every one of those metro areas has a significantly larger population base. Heck, I believe that each of the five metro areas ahead of Des Moines are all at least sixty or seventy percent larger than Des Moines. The obvious extrapolation is that Des Moines is a relatively affluent city.
My point? I don't really have one. I think that population base and television market size still have a far larger importance to supporting a sports franchise than total personal income. But, I think it does show that Des Moines is not some sort of pay scale sink hole like the local media would have you believe whenever they do a "Why oh why are the kids leaving?" story.
Saturday, October 02, 2004
The Question I'd Ask Kerry
Are any of the debates townhall style? I know that no member of the main stream media will ask Kerry what needs to be asked. And, Kerry won't be showing up on any Fox program, so that's out. So I'm left hoping for a townhall style debate.
Some enterprising person needs to stand up and say, "Mr. Kerry, you've stated repeatedly that the coalition is illegitimate because it lacks our traditional "allies" such as France. Last week, the French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin referred to the Iraqi terrorists as "our best allies." The only logical conclusion to be drawn from that statement is that France considers the U.S. an enemy. In light of that statement, rather than lamenting that they aren't in the coalition, perhaps we should be considering moving towards taking a more aggressive stance against France. How do you react to Mr. Raffarin's statement?
Some enterprising person needs to stand up and say, "Mr. Kerry, you've stated repeatedly that the coalition is illegitimate because it lacks our traditional "allies" such as France. Last week, the French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin referred to the Iraqi terrorists as "our best allies." The only logical conclusion to be drawn from that statement is that France considers the U.S. an enemy. In light of that statement, rather than lamenting that they aren't in the coalition, perhaps we should be considering moving towards taking a more aggressive stance against France. How do you react to Mr. Raffarin's statement?
The French Government is Revolting
Last week the French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin was asked about the French journalists taken hostage in Iraq. His answer was revealing; he assured the questioner that the journalists would be released because, and I quote, "The Iraqi insurgents are our best allies."
You read that correct.
Their. Best. Allies.
Unbelievable. And John Kerry believes that the coalition is not valid because it lacks the French. Someone should ask him if the Ba'athists have a real coalition because the French are with them.
There's the old saying that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Well, we need to start remembering that the corolary--the friend of my enemy is my enemy--is probably even more correct.
You read that correct.
Their. Best. Allies.
Unbelievable. And John Kerry believes that the coalition is not valid because it lacks the French. Someone should ask him if the Ba'athists have a real coalition because the French are with them.
There's the old saying that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Well, we need to start remembering that the corolary--the friend of my enemy is my enemy--is probably even more correct.
Friday, October 01, 2004
The Debates: Round One
I thought that tonights debate was a win for Kerry. But not so much for what he said, but for what Bush didn't say, namely:
Which mother effin countries aren't in the coalition? You keep saying that we don't have allies? Who's missing? We've got the U.K., Italy, Australia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Norway, the Netherlands, Romania, Japan, South Korea, plus dozens more. Who are we missing? Don't just say that you'd get us allies. We've got allies and plenty of them. So spell it out. If you've got some particular countries in mind that confer legitimacy on a coalition, by all means Johnny Boy, lay them on us?
and;
You say that it's been a distraction to go into Iraq, right? Are you a student of history Mr. Kerry? Who attacked us in World War II? It was Japan. Yet, we had a policy of dispatching Germany first. Germany had less to do with Pearl Harbor than Saddam Hussein had to do with al Qaeda. So was FDR wrong? Was Europe the 'wrong war at the wrong time'? Huh? Or, if you don't like that, how about North Africa. Why did we invade North Africa before Europe. What the hells bells did North Africa have to do with Japan? You see, Iraq now, like North Africa back in WWII, is part of a bigger strategy. We can't always hope to stop terrorists. Our best bet is to create a world where there aren't any terrorists. And the only way to do that is change the middle east. All the UN sanctions in the world weren't going to change the middle east. It was going to take something big, something powerful, something like a couple of divisions of the Marines and U.S. Army to fundamentally alter the dynamics of the region.
Update: James Lileks and I share a brain (I'm just going to quote en masse cause it's what I would write if I had his kind of skill).
He's so good, it's scary. Go read the rest of it.
Which mother effin countries aren't in the coalition? You keep saying that we don't have allies? Who's missing? We've got the U.K., Italy, Australia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Norway, the Netherlands, Romania, Japan, South Korea, plus dozens more. Who are we missing? Don't just say that you'd get us allies. We've got allies and plenty of them. So spell it out. If you've got some particular countries in mind that confer legitimacy on a coalition, by all means Johnny Boy, lay them on us?
and;
You say that it's been a distraction to go into Iraq, right? Are you a student of history Mr. Kerry? Who attacked us in World War II? It was Japan. Yet, we had a policy of dispatching Germany first. Germany had less to do with Pearl Harbor than Saddam Hussein had to do with al Qaeda. So was FDR wrong? Was Europe the 'wrong war at the wrong time'? Huh? Or, if you don't like that, how about North Africa. Why did we invade North Africa before Europe. What the hells bells did North Africa have to do with Japan? You see, Iraq now, like North Africa back in WWII, is part of a bigger strategy. We can't always hope to stop terrorists. Our best bet is to create a world where there aren't any terrorists. And the only way to do that is change the middle east. All the UN sanctions in the world weren't going to change the middle east. It was going to take something big, something powerful, something like a couple of divisions of the Marines and U.S. Army to fundamentally alter the dynamics of the region.
Update: James Lileks and I share a brain (I'm just going to quote en masse cause it's what I would write if I had his kind of skill).
But mostly I hate the debates because I simply cannot abide hearing certain statements I’ve been hearing over, and over, and over again. I can’t take any more talk about bringing allies to the table. Which ones? Brazil? Mynmar? Microfrickin’nesia? Are there some incredibly important and powerful nations out there whose existence has hitherto escaped me? Fermany? Gerance? The Galactic Order of the Belgian Dominion? Did we piss off the Vulcans? Who? If we mean “France and Germany,” then please explain to me why the reluctant participation of these two countries somehow bestows the magic kiss of legitimacy. They want in? Fine. They don’t? Fine. At this point mooning over France is like being that sophomore loser dorm pal who spent his dateless weekends telling his loser roommate about a high school sweetheart who stood him up for the prom. Give it up. Move on. I understand; they are wise and nuanced, we are young and dumb. We’re the cowboy leaning with his back against the bar, elbows on the rail, watching the door; we need our European betters to teach us how to ape the subtle forms of Nijinsky, limbs arrayed in the exquisite form of the Dying Swan. Understood. But I don’t want to be the Dying Swan. And I don’t want posture lessons from a country that spent the last 20 years flopping on its back and grabbing its ankles when Saddam showed up waving stacks of Francs in exchange for bang-sticks. Don’t you think I know about France’s relations with Saddam? Surely the advocates of the French Touch must know, and don’t care. Or they don’t know – in which case their advice is useless.
Germany? Whatever.
And it took lots of dead Americans to be able to say that.
Also dead Russians. Is Russia the great ally we’ve dissed? If we invite Russia to help, then we have to tell them things. I don’t want to tell them things. At least as they relate to the battlefield.
Perhaps the “ally” is that big blue wobbly mass known as the UN, that paragon of moral clarity, that conscience of the globe. You want to really anger a UN official? Tow his car. Short of that you can get away with anything. (Sudan is on the human rights commission, to cite a prominent and amusing detail. It’s like putting Tony Soprano on the New Jersey Waste Management Regulation Board.) I don’t worry that the UN is angry with us. I’d be worried if they weren’t. And I find it interesting that someone who would complain about outsourcing peevishly notes that we hiredHALLIBURTON to do the work instead of throwing buckets of billions to French and German contractors who sold them the jets and built the bunkers.
I’ve been hearing this shite for years! That’s why I can’t stand the debates! ENOUGH WITH FRANCE AND GERMANY!
(pause; huffing into a plastic bag to restore blood chemistry)
He's so good, it's scary. Go read the rest of it.
USC Song Girls Save A Life
I'll let the text of this AP story speak for itself.
In my four years at USC, I can't think of a single day that went by when I didn't dream about a USC Song Girl saving me. Admittedly, I was hoping that she would save me from another evening of watching USA Up All Night in a dorm room with my lazy drunken buddies (sorry guys, it's true). Alas, none of them ever called.
MINNEAPOLIS - Cleveland Indians pitcher Kyle Denney won't complain about having to dress like a cheerleader again. The white go-go boots that went with the outfit might have prevented a bullet from seriously injuring his leg.
The rookie was hit in the right calf by a shot that came through the side of the Indians' bus in Kansas City late Wednesday as the team traveled to the airport after a victory over the Royals. The bullet caused only a flesh wound, probably because of the tough leather of the knee-high boot, Denney and his trainers said.
All of Cleveland's rookies were decked out in outrageous outfits on the bus, part of a hazing ritual. An Oklahoma native, Denney said his teammates told him to dress as a USC cheerleader because the Sooners are ranked second behind Southern California in The Associated Press college football poll.
"I've never been so glad to have a USC thing on," Denney said Thursday at a news conference in Minneapolis, where the Indians traveled for a weekend series against the Twins.
In my four years at USC, I can't think of a single day that went by when I didn't dream about a USC Song Girl saving me. Admittedly, I was hoping that she would save me from another evening of watching USA Up All Night in a dorm room with my lazy drunken buddies (sorry guys, it's true). Alas, none of them ever called.
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